We're So Back.

00:00

Hello, everybody. Welcome back another episode of Why Do I Care? I'm your host, Toby Favalora. And today we have some pretty exciting news about the future of the podcast. We have someone else joining us. Hey guys, my name is Alex Treve. I go to college with Toby. Yeah. So without further ado, let's dive in. All right. So for today's episode, we're going to be focusing on the 2024 election. We're going to kind of be catching up on what we missed. It's been a while.

00:29

A lot has happened, to say the least. So I guess first and foremost, the most important thing that has happened is that Joe Biden has left the race. Um, after a pretty bad debate performance, um, the concerns over his age kind of mounted within the party. And, uh, he decided to kind of withdraw from the race after he had said repeatedly that he wasn't going to withdraw and that he was going to stay in, but finally on July 21st.

01:00

He took himself out of the race and then shortly after endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris. So that's pretty cool. Yeah, I mean just watching him drop out after it was like three weeks of just speculation and waiting and waiting and when many of us in the Democratic Party understood that he was going to lose that election if he ran. Him finally dropping out and endorsing Vice President Harris on the same day too was a really really powerful thing. It was kind of the first moment of party unity.

01:29

I feel like we've had really since, I don't know, 2012, right? Like we've been a divided party. And for the first time, people were able to come together around Vice President Harris. Yeah, and I think also, I guess on a personal note, I hold Joe Biden very, very highly after what he did. He wanted to retire from politics after his son tragically passed. But then he saw what Trump was doing to the nation. And he said he had to get involved.

01:54

So he ran for president. He was able to win in 2020. He was able to keep the country together after January 6. He got us through COVID. He helped us through inflation. He got troops out of Afghanistan. He has been an amazing president. And he has been humble. And there was a time where it seemed like he is ego, and him running for president for three times. And he finally got what he wanted. He didn't want to let go. But he put the country before himself, and he decided to step back for the good of the country.

02:25

I honestly, I think we could all kind of learn from his humility in that aspect. Yeah, I mean, 100 percent. And for a one term president, he has had one of the most successful domestic agendas we have ever seen. You know, the United States recovered from COVID the best out of any developed nation. And if you look at, you know, Inflation Reduction Act Build Back Better, you know, he almost eliminated child poverty in this country, which is unheard of by any president. You know, he was doing.

02:54

almost like great society level reforms without all the PR, which is just amazing stuff from the Biden campaign. Yeah, and honestly, I think his presidency has been a success, but however, unfortunately, his age is gonna kind of loom over whatever we see and him endorse a Kamala Harris. And like you said, the party unity, I haven't seen this much excitement around a candidate, maybe ever.

03:21

because I was two years old in 2008. Toby, would you say that you're coconut-pilled at this point? Oh, 100%. Dude, I'm so unbelievably coconut-pilled. So coconuts. I love what the campaign is doing. I love the Tim Waltz pick. At first, I was kind of skeptical. But I love what they're doing. And this is the first time that, I guess, historically, we didn't have the primary type of s-

03:51

you know, schedule that we normally would have, right? Because Biden was still running at that point. And Harris is the first nominee who didn't participate in the primaries, said Humphrey in 1968. Look at that, a little trivia for you guys. And because of that, the fact that the campaign was able to mobilize and turn around so quickly and go from honestly, like nothing really, into a full blown presidential campaign in such a short period of time is absolutely.

04:21

astounding. Yeah, I think it really speaks to the power of the moment we're into, that both parts of this party understand that this is probably the most important presidential election that we will have, especially until Trump dies. And so that like this is our time where we need to come together to seize power together and to actually protect democracy. Yeah, and building off of until Trump dies, I legitimately think that if this election does not go its way, or even if it does.

04:48

I think he was going to try to run again in 2028. I hold that belief. I think that he will do it. I think that he will try to overturn 22nd Amendment. I think that it's a real possibility, and we have to be aware that he's not going to stop. Kind of shifting over to the Republican primaries that happens, there wasn't really much for him to handle. Nikki Haley...

05:14

was the best candidate there and she didn't get too close. It really seemed like the primary system was an opportunity for Trump to get his name back in the news in a more positive light with all of his victories and people had to cover it because it was more exciting than the Democratic primaries. And I think that that helped Trump kind of regain some of his control over the Republican Party for sure. Yeah, I think to an extent, but it also just speaks to how.

05:43

bad Republican politics has become, the lack of talent they have on their bench. If you look at the Democratic Party, they have one of the deepest benches we've ever seen. You had probably 10 names thrown around for VP, whereas the Republicans, their best alternative to Trump was Nikki Haley, who was a Senator and not a fantastic one, and was Trump's ambassador to the UN, and who just could not put up a good fight. I mean, she won Vermont, I'll give her that. She did win Vermont. Yeah, no con.

06:11

Noah Khan was probably not a Nikki Haley voter. Season of Nikki Haley? Season of Nikki Haley. He actually brought out Bernie Sanders at his concert last night. As he should. As he should. Love that man. He's great. But you know, I just, I think that the Haley campaign was so badly managed. Like, just like little stuff, like entering her in the primary in Nevada when they don't vote in the primary in Nevada, right? It's little stuff that just made her look kind of juvenile and also really, really compromised her position for 2028.

06:40

Right? You know, she was set to maybe be that moderate person who could reunite the party after Trump dies. And she can't do that anymore. She has demonized herself within the Republican Party. 100 percent. And also, I guess, building off of that, she demonized herself within the party without doing what she should have. She didn't go out there and say Donald Trump tried to overthrow democracy as we know it. She didn't say Donald Trump has been a deranged lunatic the second he took office.

07:07

the second he entered the political scene in 2015, which is crazy, it's almost been 10 years, which is actually crazy. The Republicans, it seemed like the primaries were just an audition to become his VP, and I think that it didn't go well. And if she's gonna kind of ruin her name within the Republican party, she might as well have kind of put up more of a fight, but that's kind of my opinion. Yeah, I mean, Toby, you talk auditions to become VP. I think we have it.

07:35

Very interesting VP candidate, JD Vance, to talk about, I think so. Oh, yeah. I mean, struggling to order donuts and crazy cat ladies and couches and not defending his own wife from racist attacks. It's just this man is so unbelievably spineless. He makes Paul Ryan look like, you know, a fantastic person, which is crazy to say.

08:03

I do think that that has kind of been some of the most stark difference between the two campaigns is the difference in their VP picks. JD Vance has been a colossal train wreck. Tim Walz has been, I legitimately don't think there has been a VP pick that has excited more people. Maybe Kamala Harris, but then again, there was just so much momentum already when Biden

08:31

I think that the Tim Walz pick has really energized people and people really love him. And I think they should. He's great. Yeah, I mean, 100 percent. And it's also clear why both these campaigns chose their candidates, right? Because the Trump campaign chose Vance for governance. They realized this dude is not fantastic electorally. But once, you know, Trump gets back to the White House, Vance is going to be the guy who helps him consolidate control of the U.S. government and run it like a dictatorship, right? That was what they knew.

09:00

But the Harris campaign realized that, hey, Tim Walz is energetic. He's fun. He's the coach. He's going to come in. He's going to put a happy face on. He's going to go order some bratwurst. He's going to go get a cookout milkshake with Roy Cooper in North Carolina. And they're just going to have some fun on the campaign. And Americans are going to like that. And I think that just with the whole dropping out and Trump picking vans, thinking he was running against Biden because he thought he was going to win. And he's not going to win now. And I think that's just such a.

09:29

Such a funny thing that the Trump campaign has kind of dug their own grave with this VP pick. Oh, 100%. And speaking about digging people's graves, the debate performance for Biden was awful, but for Kamala Harris, it was very good. So there was a CNN poll among some debate watchers and kind of overwhelmingly, they found that Vice President Harris outperformed Trump. 63% of all debate watchers thought that she performed better and then 37% favored Trump. So that's, you know, it adds up to 100 because that's how math works.

10:00

But the biggest difference is that before the debate, they were split 50-50 about who was gonna do better. And Kamala Harris went in and she absolutely killed him. She improved her favorability after the debate. It went from 39% to 45%. And then Trump's favorability, you know, people know him, it's not gonna really change. If it hasn't changed after you try to overthrow the government, I don't know if it's gonna change. So that's kind of what happens with the debate.

10:29

This brings up the fact that before Kamala got in the race, she really wasn't well liked. People kind of saw her as the reason for the border. They kind of saw her in a negative light. And I think that personally, I'm amazed at what the campaign has been able to do and this to be really just help kind of solidify her favorability. And I mean, it's the contrast with Trump too, that makes her so favorable.

10:57

Right, it's the realization that, hey, we have somebody who can sit down and talk to us and be coherent and like speak in sentences, which is such a bad bar to have for presidential candidate. But like, that's kind of the reality of where we are at this point. And like, looking at, you know, both the debates, Trump was really bad in both of them. He was God awful in both of them. It's just that Biden looked worse in the first one. You know, CNN did a focus group of 15 Latino voters who did not speak English in that first debate.

11:27

and 14 of 15, after having the debate translated to them in Spanish, thought that Biden won because they couldn't hear his voice, right? And it just shows the contrast of like, like one of these candidates, Donald Trump, he has no policy. He has nothing going for him. And he should have lost that first debate, and Lord knows he got fucking destroyed in the second one. Oh yeah, no, 100%. And kind of, I guess, building off of that, Kamala Harris, she has this momentum behind her.

11:55

And as of now, I know polls don't vote, polls aren't everything, and we have learned not to trust the polls. However, there's some pretty sick polling data out there for Kamala Harris. As of now, she's up by Trump three points nationally. And...

12:10

In the states, the battleground states, it's looking pretty good. For Pennsylvania, she's up by four. Arizona and Georgia, they're really close. It's kind of Trump plus one, but those are really both workable. The fact that Trump has to spend money in Georgia is something that honestly, if you told me in 2016, I'd kind of have laughed at you. She's up in North Carolina, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia. So absolutely dominant there. I think the biggest thing is that she's up by four.

12:40

four in Pennsylvania and up by two in Michigan and one in Wisconsin. And the fact that if she gets those three states, that's kind of her path to victory. And we see her campaigning there. I think that it's from if I'm the one managing the shots there, I'd feel pretty good about what's happening on the campaign right now. Yeah. I mean, like from my perspective, you can never trust polling.

13:07

Right. I think we've learned that from the last few years, from drastically overestimating Hillary Clinton to 2022, drastically underestimating the power of Dobs, which I think will be a very, very large component of this campaign this year. And I still think that these polls don't accurately reflect the Dobs effect. Like, you know, they only have her up seven in Virginia, only up six in Minnesota states that she'll probably both win by double digit margins. So I think that we we can't.

13:35

really trust polling at this point, but I think it does give us a good idea of which races are actually going to be close. We know North Carolina will actually be close. We know Nevada will actually be close. But I could see her winning by more in Pennsylvania, by more in Arizona, by more in definitely Michigan. I think Whitmer carries a lot of weight there. So I think that we have a lot to be hopeful from these polling and these polls. Yeah, no. I think that it's kind of looking pretty good for her right now across the board at

14:05

on all the swing states. I feel like, yes, you can't trust polling, but what it does tell you is that it's not like awful. And that's good. And if I'm the Trump campaign, I'm getting pretty scared and I'm gonna spend money where I think I need to spend money. And I think that's something that's gonna be helpful for the Harris campaign is making Trump spend money and spend time where he really shouldn't have to.

14:33

And I guess talking about swing states, there's some pretty intense down ballot races. There are important races for the state of the Senate. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, just like looking at Senate stuff, Democrats have things to be hopeful for and things to kind of be dismayed by. I think in terms of being disappointed, definitely Tester in Montana, his polling has looked egregiously awful so far. He's up one.

15:02

in the Montana first, he needs to be up at least 10 there in order to win. But other places look relatively more hopeful. They have Connor Allred actually up one in the Texas Senate race, according to the last morning console poll, which I think ousting Ted Cruz from office, even though I really don't think it's gonna happen, if we manage to pull it off, it would be, I think, just hilarious. I think it'd be amazing, and I think that, I guess in a similar sense to

15:31

how we treat Stacey Abrams, I think we're gonna treat Beto kind of the same. If Texas does flip that Senate seat, it could mean that Texas is more competitive, I guess, presidentially. What do you think about Texas being competitive? I think that Texas, I mean, it has a overwhelmingly large growing Latino population, which is the biggest growing voting block in the United States.

15:58

Their urban centers are swinging to the left every single year. You know, you see Harris County where Houston is, right? They're gaining more and more vote share more and more Democrats each year So I think it's more of a question of when does Texas go blue than if Texas goes blue The thing about Texas though is that the way it's state congressional Districts are set up. It's always gonna have Republican house, right? Always gonna have that Republican legislature, which means that there is never gonna be a favorable map for Democrats on the House side

16:27

and that they'll never be able to kind of gain those positions on election boards that you need to protect the sanctity of our elections. And that's always going to keep Texas from, I think, ever being more than somewhere we could win a Senate race every once in a while, a presidential race every once in a while, if we're lucky. But it's just those Republican roots there are really too much to overcome in many cases. Yeah, and I think I do kind of agree with that. But the fact that it's being—

16:56

considered slightly competitive is just such a good thing for the Democratic Party as a whole. There are some pretty competitive races besides just the Senate. The House is not looking the best necessarily, but it's still looking pretty good for the Democrats. It's something that could be competitive like it always is. There are some pretty key races.

17:25

across the board there are, you know, like always, New York and Pennsylvania, California, those competitive kind of seats that we see the same, but it's looking pretty, you know, competitive. So what do you think? If you're the Democratic Party and you say, I want to focus on the Senate or I want to focus on the House, which one did you pick? I mean, I think House is where you have to go. The reality is the math isn't there for the Senate, right?

17:53

because we lost Joe Manchin, who was essentially Democrat name only, but still we lost Joe Manchin. I know. And Jim Justice is going to win that seat. So I think you have to go to, you know, looking at like competitive House races and seeing, okay, what can we actually win? Because money has just so much more impact in the House down ballot than I think really in the Senate. Yeah. So we talked about the House. We talked about the Senate. You want to talk about governors?

18:22

I think, Toby, I've got one more Senate race we've got to keep our eye on before we leave here. Nebraska. There's a very interesting Senate race going on. We have Dan Osborne and Deb Fischer. Dan Osborne is running as an independent in Nebraska. We are unknown of who he will really caucus with, but he is polling about tied with Deb Fischer in a traditionally red state, which I think is really interesting.

18:50

that you're also seeing kind of this break from our typical two-party system, and you have an independent who's running on kind of like a workers' rights type thing, where there is some right-wing populism mixed in there, I'll give them that. But it makes me wonder, are we gonna see more of this in the future? Yeah, definitely kind of that, like pro-labor, working class message, I think in Nebraska could really be helpful.

19:14

Governors, it's not too, too crazy. New Hampshire's probably gonna be the closest one after some North Carolina news. Oh yeah, yeah, just on New Hampshire first, being from Massachusetts, we get all the New Hampshire ads back in our local stations. And it's just so funny watching Kelly Iote just kinda step on her feet over and over again. She recently said that she would oppose the expansion of MBTA commuter rail to Nashua.

19:42

even though they would pay for maybe five miles of track in a couple stations, even though a very large proportion of the Nashville metro actually needs to go to Boston for their day job so they can go work. I just think that she, I'm really hoping she does not win that election over there. It's gonna be close, but I think after years of Sunnu-nu-ism up there, I think New Hampshire might be ready for a little bit of change. Yeah, I definitely agree with that. I don't know who wouldn't wanna go into Boston.

20:12

So I don't know if that's gonna resonate with voters. I don't know, they still gotta catch a socks game every once in a while. You wanna talk about Mark Robinson now? Oh, do I ever wanna talk about Mark Robinson? I mean, it's just, it's just, it's messed up, right? Like on a core level, all of this is excitingly strange. We don't see this ever in elections, right? Every single move.

20:42

that this guy, this candidate, and his campaign have made so far would be campaign enders in any other era of U.S. politics. But because he was up there holding Donald Trump's hand on stage, he is now stuck in this gubernatorial race where there are many in his own party trying to kick him out. And it's just increasingly and excitingly strange. Yeah, I don't even know where to begin. We're not going to read off some of the things he said just because... Um...

21:11

Yeah, it's bad. I thought that being a Holocaust denier should be campaign ending, but it wasn't. But I guess we'll see if calling yourself a black Nazi is going to be campaign ending. It should be. It should be career ending. I don't know how this is even still being discussed. The reality is that campaign enders...

21:41

don't exist in Republican politics anymore. And I think we kind of have to come to grips with that because we know that 35% of America is gonna rock with that candidate no matter what they say, as long as they're up on stage shaking hands with Donald Trump. And that's all they care about, right? Is that Trump endorsement. And so you're gonna kind of see this paradigm where you have a very large swath of very Republican, very conservative voters who are aligned with Trump, who are not gonna support non-Trump candidates. And so...

22:11

their parties just kind of stuck with this for a long time. Yeah. All right, we're gonna take a quick break and then after the break, we'll be back with the why do I care section of the podcast. Welcome back. So now like the name suggests, it's time to talk about why do you care about these issues.

22:30

because that's who's gonna govern. I don't really know what else to say, but it's important to care about elections because that is who governs. It's important to care about elections because there are people who sacrifice their lives for the right to vote. It's important to care about elections because of all of our history about how we the people are going to try to work together to create a more perfect union. The fact that...

22:56

There are a large amount of Americans who aren't even voting or kind of engaged in politics. Just it goes to show how far we've come to get people the right to vote. Yet not everybody wants to use that right to vote.

23:13

And the fact that there are people running and winning races that believe that 2020 was stolen from them, that believe that Donald Trump should be the next president, like should be the president of the United States right now. The fact that there's a convicted felon running. All of these things just go to show how absolutely crazy the state of US politics is. And the fact that people see that and they say, you know what? I'm not going to vote.

23:44

is kind of mind numbing to me. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it's just we're in a place now that this country has never seen before. And I think that you have to care if you call yourself a patriot. If you get up in the morning and you say, I am an American patriot, I think anybody can do that. No matter your ideology, you can get up in the morning and say, I'm an American patriot. But there are a couple things that come with that. It's about believing in democracy. It's about believing in our system and that the things that we have in place will work.

24:13

And the reality is that if we have a Republican trifecta this fall, those things are no longer going to work. We are going to have an authoritarian government. And I care because I want a better future, not just for myself but for every single American who might not even show up at the polling place but does, whose life is actually impacted by the policies and the politics that go on.

24:38

And just the reality is that we need to be proud of our country again. We need to be strong again, and we need to be united again, and we need to finally and formally kick Trumpism out of our national discourse. And I guess in a more literal sense, there are a bunch of policies that are also up for debate right now, like women's right to choose, health care, gun controls, we can finally stop these school shootings. The climate.

25:08

You know, all of these things are on the ballot, and it matters who you vote for. There has been too much of this mindset that it's not my problem, it is your problem. Or, oh, my vote doesn't count. It does count. The only way that you can make a change is by showing up. You gotta vote, you gotta vote. You have to vote. Like, it's astonishing.

25:35

to think that people are choosing not to vote because they think that it doesn't matter, but it does matter. That's how democracy works. It matters that you vote. It matters that you tell other people to vote. If you say, oh, I'm just one person, okay, open your phone, text three people, your vote, turn it into four votes if you can convince them. Post on your story. How many people would see that? Let's say 30, see it and decide to do something. Give or take. That's how you multiply.

26:06

your power and your voice. Democracy isn't about your votes mattering necessarily. It's about your vote and everybody else's vote mattering. That's what democracy is about. And by sitting on the sidelines and complaining about what's happening in this country, you're not helping. You're actually making it worse. Yep, we've got 45 days till our presidential election and you gotta fight for every single one of them.

26:37

Yeah, it's not enough to stay on the sidelines for this. Our country's future is at stake. Democracy's future is at stake. And I can't believe I had to say that, but it is. It's at stake. And it's important to vote. It's important to care. That's why you should care, because it matters. Thank you all so much for listening to this week's episode. Be sure to follow us at WhyDoICarePod on almost any social. We got Twitter.

27:06

TikTok, Instagram, all that good stuff. Be sure to follow, like, all that good stuff, and have a great rest of your day.